What the bookies' odds say

To help managers finalise their UEFA Champions League (UCL) Fantasy squads for Matchday 1, we’ve rounded up the bookmakers’ odds for each club’s chances of finishing inside the league phase top eight.

These will receive a bye to the round of 16. Whereas teams ranked from ninth to 24th will compete in the knockout phase playoffs.

Both ourselves and Fantasy Football Community will be providing managers with plenty of content throughout the season.

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ODDS TO FINISH IN UCL’S TOP EIGHT

Using a well-known bookmaker, we’ve slightly adjusted the odds in order to remove their markup, ensuring these 36 numbers total 800%. Eight clubs that will eventually qualify with 100% certainty.

TEAM		ADJUSTED PERCENTAGE
Barcelona	Pot 1	62.6%
Paris Saint-Germain	Pot 1	60.7%
Liverpool	Pot 1	60.7%
Arsenal	Pot 2	58.5%
Real Madrid	Pot 1	54.3%
Manchester City	Pot 1	51.6%
Bayern Munich	Pot 1	48.8%
Chelsea	Pot 1	46.0%
Inter Milan	Pot 1	31.9%
Atletico Madrid	Pot 2	29.2%
Napoli	Pot 3	29.2%
Tottenham Hotspur	Pot 3	29.2%
Newcastle United	Pot 4	25.1%
Juventus	Pot 2	21.9%
Bayer Leverkusen	Pot 2	19.5%
Borussia Dortmund	Pot 1	17.5%
Atalanta	Pot 2	14.7%
Athletic Club	Pot 4	13.5%
Monaco	Pot 4	12.5%
Villarreal	Pot 2	12.5%
Marseille	Pot 3	11.7%
PSV Eindhoven	Pot 3	11.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt	Pot 2	11.0%
Benfica	Pot 2	9.7%
Galatasaray	Pot 4	9.7%
Ajax	Pot 3	8.8%
Sporting CP	Pot 3	8.8%
Olympiacos	Pot 3	6.8%
Copenhagen	Pot 4	5.2%
Club Brugge	Pot 2	4.2%
Union SG	Pot 4	3.8%
Bodo/Glimt	Pot 3	3.8%
Pafos	Pot 4	2.5%
Slavia Prague	Pot 3	1.8%
Qarabag	Pot 4	0.9%
Kairat	Pot 4	0.4%

Nine teams belong to Pot 1, but Dortmund aren’t near the leading nine expectations. Instead, Arsenal are up there, placed fourth.

Reigning champions PSG have odds of 60.7%, despite needing to navigate a tough set of fixtures versus Barcelona, Bayern Munich and arguably the strongest sides from Pots 3 and 4.

Meanwhile, we see that Pot 2 confidence varies from Arsenal all the way down to 30th-placed Club Brugge.

In fact, Tottenham Hotspur (3), Napoli (3) and Newcastle United (4) are seen as more likely to finish in the top tier than seven of the Pot 2 outfits.